Right Off Russell

Here’s some perspective on the next opponent for the O’s. Thanks to Ed at Federal Baseball.

1. The Nats are making good efforts to build around pitchers like, Lannan, Martis, Zimmermann and Detwiler. What is your impression of this group? Who sticks/who doesn’t stick and is there enough there for the Nats to succeed with?

Jordan Zimmermann’s clearly the best prospect here, with a lively, heavy mid-90’s fastball and a tight slider that’s just brutal at times, while Ross Detwiler’s beginning to show everyone why he was a #1 pick back in ‘07. John Lannan’s ascent is somewhat miraculous, an 11th Round pick in ‘05, (324th overall), he pitched just one full season in A ball before rising through every level of the organization in ‘07 to make his MLB debut, so you can’t count out anyone whose poise and ability to throw strikes has allowed him to succeed where so many others have failed. Shairon Martis worries folks because he lacks the “stuff” to really put batters away, and he’s struggled as a contact pitcher who doesn’t have the best defensive team behind him…I’d say Zimmermann, Detwiler and Mr. Strasburg are the core here, with the 4 and 5 spots, when and if the Nationals actually start to compete, coming down to a battle between Lannan, Martis and some of the other prospects who are still working there way up like Jack McGeary, or working their way back up, like Collin Balester (who’s currently on fire in Triple-A Syracuse).

2. Who is likely to get moved out of the rotation when Scott Olsen gets back, or is Olsen heading to the bullpen?

I had thought until recently that either Craig Stammen or Ross Detwiler would be out once Olsen returned, (and I’m hearing mixed reviews on Olsen right now), but I think you have to throw Shairon Martis’ name into the mix too, as he’s struggled in his last few starts. In addition to Olsen moving someone out, however, I think you’re going to see the Nationals work some of the other prospects in the organization into the major league rotation as the season goes on, as they shut down or rest their young starters.

3. Speaking of young pitching, do you think Stephen Strasburg will break the trend of pitchers chosen #1 overall failing? What is your level of certainty that Strasburg and the Nats work out a deal?

The odds are against Strasburg succeeding as everyone took time to point out as the draft was approaching, and there’s going to be tremendous pressure on him once he does finally sign. And he will. Unless Strasburg and his agent, Scott Boras, (of course), decide they don’t want to pitch in Washington, there is no way the Nationals let this one get away. When a fanbase suffers through a 102-loss season, the only consolation is the #1 pick in the next year’s draft and the Nationals’ fanbase recognized that the stars were aligning with Strasburg emerging from the prospect pack just as it became clear that DC had sewn up the “top” spot and they’ve been following his career closely since then. For the Nationals to fail to sign two straight #1 picks would be disastrous for the franchise. The $50 million dollar starting point Boras (or “sources”) put out there is ridiculous, when he finally signs, I’m betting it’s somewhere between $15-$20M, maybe, maybe $25M, and if it’s before mid-August I’d be surprised…

4. Ryan Zimmerman got off to a fabulous start this year, but has struggled in June. Any thoughts why?

The entire middle of the order has struggled in June, and it’s all interconnected, if Adam Dunn’s struggling and striking out more, you don’t have to give Zimmerman as many good pitches because you’re not as worried about putting people on in front of the clean-up hitter, and the Nationals have gotten very little production out of the batters they’ve tried batting fifth, with Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns failing to produce and Josh Willingham having a hard time even finding playing time because of his reluctance to play any position other than left, so teams can easily work around or at least not give good pitches to both Zimmerman and Dunn and have faith that they can retire the hitters at the bottom of the Nationals’ order, especially with Jesus Flores out of the lineup.

5. Is Nick Johnson as good as traded? Who do you see him ending up with?

Up until last night I would have said he was as good as traded. I said all along that if Nick stayed healthy he would get dealt, but now it might come down to how he returns from a curveball he took to the shin from John Smoltz. No team is going to give up legit prospects for a player with Johnson’s injury history, which is why I don’t think the Nationals haven’t moved him yet, once teams get a little more desperate, (like say if David Ortiz doesn’t get back to his old self), or see that they actually have a shot at a division, or a Wild Card berth (I’m looking at you San Francisco), I think the quality they offer in return might start to exceed the return the Nationals could expect as compensation should the Nationals keep Johnson and have him sign elsewhere as a free agent after the season.

6. Many in Baltimore feel that Dave Trembley is just a placeholder as manager. What does the future hold for Manny Acta?

I want Manny Acta to stay. I think he’s the perfect, patient manager to build a team with. When he was hired, Acta’s demeanor and his ability to work with young players were cited as the reasons why he was the right choice, and finally freed of Jim Bowden’s questionable judgement, I think the Nationals have put together the type of team that they had in mind when they brought Acta in. When contracts like Austin Kearns’, Dmitri Young’s and Ronnie Belliard’s are off the books too, and younger players have replaced them on the roster, I think it will be even more Acta’s team. That being said, if the Nationals lose 100+ games two seasons in a row, it’s going to be hard to justify resigning Acta, whose contract ends this season. You’ll be counting on fans recognizing that the talent just wasn’t there, and that Acta’s the right man to bring out the best in these players, especially when there are bound to be other “big name” managers available in the offseason. I hope he stays, but right now I see his job riding on the second half…

7. Do you ever see the fan rivalry between Nats/O’s developing into what the Skins/Ravens is?

When I told the Federal Baseball readers I was doing an interview with an O’s blog, I asked them if they had any questions and one of the first ones to come up was, “Are you as sick of our faux-rivalry as we are?” There’s no real rivalry here is there? Other than a carry-over from other sports. I think one of the two teams is going to actually have to have some success, or there will have to be an “incident” that occurs to spark some sort of rivalry…actually I might be the wrong person to ask about this, as a former Montreal Expos’ fan, I have no sense of a rivalry with Baltimore as a city or a team, but even in DC, aside from not liking it when Baltimore fans yell “O” during the national anthem, I don’t think there’s the sort of enmity you see between Chicago’s or New York’s teams.